Exit polls show Netanyahu and Eisenkot tied in Israeli Knesset race

Late-night exit polls from Israel's major broadcasters indicate a stalemate in the race for the 120-seat Knesset, with no clear path to a governing majority. Channel 12 projects Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc will capture 52 seats, while the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot will take 49. Channel 13 offers a different snapshot, suggesting a dead heat with both blocs winning 51 seats.

The race is effectively a referendum on Netanyahu's leadership following the October 7, 2023 attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza. The vote also arrived amid escalating tensions in the West Bank and with neighboring states. Preliminary official results are expected on Wednesday, though they may differ from these unofficial polling indicators.

Within the blocs, Likud appears poised to become the single largest party. Updated projections from Channels 12 and 13 estimate Likud will win 27 seats, compared to 21 for Eisenkot's Yashar party. Arab parties are projected to win 19 seats collectively, a gain from their 2022 performance. Because no single party has ever secured the 61-seat threshold on its own, coalition building will determine the next government.

Reactions from party leaders were immediate and divergent. Eisenkot told supporters at his headquarters that the "old era is over" and that Israel is starting a new path. Netanyahu countered by declaring Likud the dominant force and calling for a "national right-wing government." He accused television networks of discouraging his base by projecting stronger opposition numbers.

Far-right figures also addressed their bases. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich vowed to expand settlements in the West Bank after his party was projected to win seven seats. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir praised his Otzma Yehudit party's performance. Yair Golan of the Democrats said voters had "fired the Netanyahu government," while Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas expressed hope that the final count would allow the opposition to reach the 61-seat threshold.

The Central Elections Committee reported a turnout of 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999. This represents a 7.1 percentage point increase from 2022. Military turnout exceeded 68 percent by 15:00 GMT, and more than 60,000 Israelis returned from abroad to vote.

Arab-led lists accused Netanyahu of inciting hatred to mobilize right-wing voters. Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List said voters could end Netanyahu's "bloody reign." Abbas called Netanyahu's comments a "scare tactic." In posts on X, Netanyahu described Arab voters as "Muslim Brotherhood supporters" and urged right-wing Israelis to vote for Likud, calling the situation a "matter of life and death." The final tally is expected by Friday, with official results published on November 4.