Israel election leaves no bloc with enough seats to govern

No political camp in Israel currently holds the 61 seats required to form a government following Tuesday's parliamentary election. Early results indicate a divided parliament where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, are both stalled. The identity of the next prime minister remains undecided as officials continue counting ballots.

Likud, Netanyahu's party, is projected to win as many as 28 seats. His right-wing and ultra-Orthodox alliance is expected to fall short of the majority threshold. Eisenkot's Yashar party appears set for second place with approximately 22 seats. The broader change bloc surrounding Eisenkot is projected at roughly 47 seats, also well below the number needed to govern alone.

Arab parties are on track to secure at least 17 seats combined. Both major blocs have stated they would prefer to exclude these parties from a governing coalition, yet their numbers could prove decisive in any effort to remove Netanyahu from power. President Isaac Herzog will begin formal consultations with party leaders next week to identify a candidate capable of commanding a majority.

Analysts have outlined three potential paths forward. The first involves a government supported by the change bloc and Arab parties. Every party in the change bloc except the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, pledged not to sit in coalition with Arab factions. Mansour Abbas, leader of the Islamist Ra'am party, is again offering cooperation. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, noted that this option is mathematically sound but would break campaign promises. He described the public as deeply unprepared for such an arrangement.

A variation of this scenario would be a minority government. This would include Yashar, B'Yachad, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Democrats, with Arab parties backing it from outside. This configuration could reach 65 seats. Avigdor Lieberman has rejected the idea, though Professor Jonathan Rynhold of Bar-Ilan University suggested he might agree if he became prime minister. The Arab parties may demand concessions that Eisenkot finds difficult to accept.

The second scenario is a unity government. Plesner believes serious negotiations for this type of arrangement are likely. He imagines Netanyahu would seek to retain his entire bloc while luring in one change bloc party. Change bloc parties would likely demand that Netanyahu drop a far-right or ultra-Orthodox party that has resisted a military draft bill. While the public might accept a centrist-leaning result, many voters who backed replacing Netanyahu may feel betrayed.

The third possibility is another election. Eisenkot called a repeat vote a mistake after the high turnout. Election officials reported that 77.7% of voters participated, the highest rate since 1999. Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, stated that entrenched camps make new elections plausible. Plesner suggested it may take weeks or months to settle who becomes prime minister.