Noaa staff drops 20% as winter storm season approaches

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) has lost roughly 20% of its workforce since January 2025, a reduction that former officials say has weakened the agency's ability to forecast and respond to extreme weather. As the United States braces for a potentially historic El Niño, experts argue the cuts have created dangerous gaps in data collection and public safety systems.

Workforce data from the US Office of Personnel Management, last updated in August 2026, shows the agency lost more than 3,000 staff members. This decline represents the largest drop in a decade. The losses include employees who were laid off, those who took retirement incentives, and staff who resigned voluntarily. Only 525 new hires were added during the same period, leaving a deficit of approximately 2,500 personnel.

The reductions have hit specific departments hard. The public affairs team was cut by roughly half. Information technology management staff, which supports forecasting infrastructure, decreased by about 27%. Science positions saw a net loss of more than 500 roles. Meteorologist and technician numbers dropped by approximately 10% as autumn began, despite efforts by the National Weather Service (NWS) to fill vacancies after major layoffs earlier in the year.

Operational strains are already visible. The NWS processes 6.3 billion observations daily and issues up to 50,000 warnings annually. With fewer staff, some forecast offices required employees to work double shifts to remain open, according to a Washington Post report from September. A government accountability office (GAO) finding noted that staffing and funding cuts led to inadequate multilingual weather alerts, placing 26 million Americans at higher risk. Delayed weather balloon launches also left parts of the Great Plains with limited preparation time for tornadoes.

The agency faces these challenges while preparing for a super El Niño, a climate pattern driven by warmer equatorial sea surface temperatures. Forecasters expect the phenomenon to strengthen through winter, potentially raising California sea levels by up to a foot and fueling storms in the American West. Tom Di Liberto, a former Noaa climate scientist and current media director at Climate Central, stated that the system has not been tested since the cuts began. He noted that the country's ability to handle coast-to-coast extremes is a major open question.

Funding cuts have compounded staffing issues. The administration terminated grants totaling over $28 million, affecting states, cities, universities, and nonprofits. Grant Witness analysis shows climate research grants in fiscal year 2026 are 37% lower than the 2021 to 2024 average. Additionally, funding for a decade-long project to monitor oceans with autonomous robotic devices expires at the end of October. The administration also proposed a $1.6 billion cut to Noaa's budget for the next year, a 26% reduction, which would further strain resources if approved.

International partners rely on Noaa data for tracking severe weather in Europe, coordinating disaster response in the Caribbean, and monitoring deforestation in the Amazon. Monica Medina, principal deputy administrator of Noaa during the Obama administration, expressed concern over the potential for loss of life due to reduced protection capabilities. She described the current situation as a test of a hotter future that the US might fail.

Research opportunities are being lost as the agency scales back its data collection efforts. During the last strong El Niño a decade ago, Noaa deployed planes, balloons, unmanned aircraft, and a research ship. This year, NPR reported that only a handful of unmanned watercraft will be deployed into the Pacific. Rick Spinrad, who served as Noaa administrator for the Biden administration, said the administration's actions suggest the US may not sustain current monitoring capabilities. He questioned whether the country is at a turning point in its ability to observe and predict weather events.

Noaa and its parent agency, the Department of Commerce, did not return requests for comment before publication. The agency continues to operate with a 2,500-person staffing deficit as winter approaches.